The big focus this week will be on the battle taking place between new #1 Ohio State and #18 Wisconsin. However, in soon to be Big Ten news, #5 Nebraska takes on the Texas Longhorns who have lost their last two games headed into the contest in Lincoln. You may have heard that Nebraska’s promotion video for this year’s football season ended with the slogan “Beat Texas” on it, which has since been removed. Despite the fact that Texas has struggled lately, I expect this could be a pretty exciting grudge match in what will probably be the last time these two teams meet each other as conference foes. The Hawkeyes have a big game against Michigan on the road where they’ll be looking to get a big win to keep their conference title hopes alive. With those top games out of the way, let’s get to the picks.
() Texas @ Nebraska– Neb -9.5pts: Neb to win and to cover spread
1st, let’s get all the history out of the way. Texas has beaten Nebraska 8 of the 9 times they’ve played. 2nd, Mack Brown is 12-0 in games after the Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma (last week’s game). Texas hasn’t lost 3 games in a row since 2000. By picking Nebraska I’m picking that all those streaks end Saturday. Texas has a lot of talent, (Duh, they’re Texas) they will be motivated to beat Nebraska for the aforementioned video and the fact that Nebraska leaving the Big 12 has been blamed on Texas’ control of the running of the conference. That being said, they haven’t played well against any opponent this year. They lost by 8 to Oklahoma, but fumbled a punt return that could have tied the game and they needed 2 scores just to get within 8. They lost at home to a floundering UCLA team by 22 and the game wasn’t as close as that score indicates…Nebraska on the other hand has the 2nd best rushing offense in the country, the 9th best scoring offense in the country, and the 4th best scoring defense in the country. Also, they’re at home…despite the tensions being high for this game, Nebraska is going to have to really struggle and Texas is going to have to play their “A” game to pull off the upset. Could this happen? Sure, but it would be a pretty big upset considering the way the teams are playing coming into this game.
() Arkansas State @ Indiana – IU-12pts: Indiana to win and to cover spread
Indiana gets a little reprieve this week from 2 tough conference games with a visit from Arkansas State. Arkansas State hasn’t beaten any impressive opponents and are only 2-4, but as all Iowa fans will remember they came into Kinnick last year and gave the Hawks all they could handle for 4 quarters. Indiana isn’t as good as the Hawks, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Arkansas State keep this one fairly close as well. Despite struggles last week against Ohio State, Indiana still boasts the 10th best passing attack in the nation. Indiana QB Ben Chappell had 2 INT’s last week, but still threw for 60% accuracy so it shouldn’t be too much to expect a bounce back game from him. If they can keep the ball moving through the air, they should be able to take care of business handily.
()Illinois @ Michigan State– MSU -7pts: Michigan State to win and to cover spread
In another road test for Illinois, they travel to East Lansing to take on the Spartans who are coming off a big win last Saturday against Michigan. Kirk Cousins has started to throw the ball better in conference play giving the MSU offense a more balanced look than they had to start the season against their weaker competition. Despite some experts (looking at you Rittenberg) saying that Michigan State is the #2 team in the conference I’m still not sure and I don’t expect to find out this week either. Illinois is clearly improved on defense, but I wonder how they will fair against a stronger Michigan State team than they faced last week again the struggling Nittany Lions. At 3-2, the Illini could realistically have a shot at winning 5 of their last 7 games. While this is one of the 2 I’m not srue they can win, at this point, to completely right them off after their inspired conference play (even the loss to Ohio State), I think Michigan State isn’t careful Illinois could give them more than they can handle.
()Minnesota @ Purdue– Pur -5.5pts:Purdue to win and Minnesota to cover spread
4 for 4 predicting the home team to win…probably going to miss one of these and if I do, I think it will be this one. Purdue surprised the previously unbeaten Northwestern Wildcats last week 20-17 without many of their key starters and contributors. How long they can keep that up I don’t know, but Minnesota is a team that is clearly the worst team in the Big Ten (they are the only conference team with less than 3 total wins). That being said, with all the injuries Purdue is dealing with, if there’s any game left on the schedule for the Gophers to steal it’s this game. If Gophers QB Adam Weber can throw more completions (threw for 44% last week, but had 249 yards and 3 TD’s against Wisconsin) and they can contain the ground attack of Dan Dierking who was almost singlehandedly the Boilermakers offense last week, I think the Gophers have a shot at the upset.
(2)Iowa @ Michigan – Iowa -3.5pts: Iowa to win and to cover spread
I know that I have this as the 2nd most exciting game of the week, but I’m honestly picking that because I think Iowa could/should tear Michigan apart. Iowa’s defense is better than Michigan’s and Michigan’s secondary is pretty suspect as well. If Iowa doesn’t challenge them through the air by throwing to McNutt and DJK I’ll be very disappointed. The biggest question for the Hawks will be how do they come out on the road? The only other away game for the Hawks started in disaster and they were playing catch-up the whole game falling just short when the final buzzer sounded. If Iowa gets behind early, Denard Robinson won’t feel as much pressure and will make less mistakes which is the big reason the Spartans beat them last week. Also, Iowa is the only team in D1A football that hasn’t given up a rushing touchdown yet this year. Going up against the 6th best rushing attack in the nation something will have to give. I’m guessing the streak ends as Robinson will get in for at least 1 score. Considering the Spartans just beat Michigan by 17 at home this spread seems pretty low to me which says Vegas is handicapping Iowa’s bad road record so far this year. I’d say this should be at least 3-4 points higher to be in the -7 range for Iowa, take the points, take the Hawks, and you should be 2-2 on this game barring a disaster of Arizona proportions.
(1)Ohio State @ Wisconsin– OSU-4pts:OSU to win and to cover spread
In a battle that will help shape the Big Ten title landscape, the #1Buckeyes visit the #18 Badgers. If Ohio State wins, they will maintain their spot on the top of the conference heap, but an Ohio State loss would propel the Badgers back into the discussion as a potential Big Ten champ. All Boise State fans are hoping for an upset this week and it could definitely happen. Wisconsin has won 13 of its last 14 home games, and has won 25 of its last 28 played at night. That being said, Wisconsin really only has a big advantage over Ohio State and that is in the running back department with John Clay and James White. If Wisconsin can get these guys going early and force Terrelle Pryor into making mistakes, they should have a shot at winning this game. However, if OSU shuts down the rushing attack and the game has to be won by Scott Tolzien there will be little for Badgers fans to “Jump Around” about in Madison this weekend.
This week I'm picking all but one of my picks to win to also cover the spread so it could be an interesting week as far as spread success goes, but there shoudl be 2 intriging matchups to follow in the afternoon, then at night. As we get towards the end of the season margin for error decreases so Wisconsin especially will h